I’ve been really thinking about why Putin would want to invade Ukraine.

– It wasn’t just to spend money. The Russian economy is, like most of the world, is unstable. It wasn’t to become a semi-joke on the world stage. It wasn’t to disrupt the selling of oil, which is one of their biggest moneymakers. Most of their ground weaponry is outdated as they choose to focus on a long-range arsenal like nukes and missiles.

Ukraine, to the best of my knowledge, doesn’t have any resources that Russia must have to survive. It wasn’t the pondering of resources that lead Putin to take this risk.

Rather, his invasion is, I believe, grounded on a more simple and fundamental bed of logic. He’s defending his country and, to an extent, keeping his borders secure.

I’m thinking of his situation. Russia is HUGE. It’s so huge that I don’t think most people can comprehend how large it is. The nation branches from Europe to the edge of the Asian area. (Is it okay to use the word Asian?) Maps don’t justify how expansive it is.

To the east, Russia is fairly secure. China, an ally, can be called upon to defend its border. Any attacker would have to cross the Pacific Ocean, which would give Russia plenty of time to prepare.

To the west, Russia has been historically threatened and invaded. Hitler is the most recent invasion. Although Hitler didn’t conquer Russia, Germany had caused severe damage to the nation. Before that, Napoleon invaded Russia.

Besides those major violations, NATO was formed. This organization was partly created to defend against incursions from Communist countries. Or, rather, anything that doesn’t model itself on the U.S. and capitalist way of life. This points to two major nations, Russia and China. It’s become a ‘us vs. them’ sort of situation.

Given this history, I can understand why Putin is apprehensive of Europe and North America. Because of the societal and idiomatic differences coupled the propaganda of Russia is bad…. since there needs to be opposing forces although these claims are not understood, may be unfounded, and rely heavily on Western propaganda… there is a line of countries that separate NATO supporters and Russia on the European continent.

These nations serve as a wall. They’re protection. While they may be neutral or even friendly to Russia, any land attacks would have to plow through these nations that are innocent in any potential confrontation with Russia. NATO, being the ‘good guys’ in this situation, surely wouldn’t disrupt peaceful nations. And, of course, there is the possibility that the nations wouldn’t appreciate tanks and military equipment invading their borders. They could retaliate which would weaken, if not defeat, the invading NATO forces.

But, over the years, this buffer zone of nations has started to dwindle. The biggest offender was President Clinton. Clinton, who was in office from 1993 to 2001, added three nations to NATO in 1999. Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland joined NATO and, in doing so, became potential enemies of Russia. While Hungary and the Czech Republic were worrying, Poland became a threat.

Poland, by itself, isn’t a powerhouse. It might be able to fight a bit. But, it would be foolish to attack Russia, However, Poland shares a land border of 127 miles and 20 miles of the sea with Russia. It would provide a launching point for NATO ground forces. Poland is also less than a thousand miles from Russia’s capital, Moscow. I think that its importance is being pointed out on the world stage right now. The whole airplane incident was proof positive that Poland could be a threat to the Russian border.

At some point, months ago, someone hinted that Ukraine was eligible to join NATO. While I don’t think it is, Ukraine shares a 1300 mile land border with Russia.

That land barrier that separates NATO, an organization whose purpose is to target nations like Russia, has been severely weakened. Poland and Ukraine would provide a two-pronged invasion. Forces from Poland would attack from the north and Ukraine from the south. That could put Moscow and other cities into a pincer type of situation. Their ally, China, maybe too far away to provide assistance if they chose to assist at all.

With the border compromised, so goes the nation.

So, why?
Why now?

Well, Russia didn’t retaliate under Clinton. I’m not sure why, but they didn’t.

The next US president was George Bush.
At this time, I’m thinking that it was too risky. Under Bush, 9/11 occurred, and the entire world was on high alert. While Russia was no longer the US’s first enemy, they were still an enemy. Bush was also on a warpath. This is when the US attacked and occupied Afghanistan. That may have been a little too risky and NATO posed little threat as the world was preoccupied.

Obama followed.
While the world wasn’t as stressed, Osama bin Laden was removed by the Obama administration. Besides, Obama was actually friendly to Russia. Obama accepted a partnership with Russia to side against Syria. Obama also knew and supported Russia’s business with Iran which armed Iran with air defense systems. But, the biggest boon to Russia was Obama’s cancelation of the missile defense programs of Poland and the Czech Republic. This would keep a lot of American military and missiles out of Poland which kept Russia safe. Essentially, Obama was a useful tool.

Trump…
Well, what else needed to be said? Trump.
Given his lack of political background, it would be difficult to predict how Trump would react. Plus, Trump did make friendly overtures to Russia and China while pulling out of European trappings like the Paris Climate Accord. Trump also asked for other countries to start paying for NATO. If anything, Trump seemed kind of like an equalizer. But, he didn’t last.

That leads us to President Brandon.
…. I’m sorry. Biden.

At this point, why not?
Biden is obviously mentally compromised and, unlike Russia, doesn’t care for borders. This is obvious by the continual stream of illegals from Mexico. Biden has also shown that he cares not for the economy and the welfare of the people through the cancelation of the pipeline, making oil production difficult, and crippled fracking. In under a year, along with the Covid fiasco, the US has become weak and despondent. Biden is ineffective, confused, and listless.

Should Ukraine become part of NATO, Russia would be seriously compromised. Instead of the wait-and-see attitude, Putin seized the chance to take action and secure Ukraine or, at the very least, receive assurances that it could never become part of NATO. This means that the 1300 miles of the shared border would be secure.

… and here we are.

While I’m sure that there are other reasons and this explanation is flawed. But, I think this explanation has merit. Putin is, I think, just trying to secure Russia — his reputation and the world economy be damned.